TEORIA DAS ATIVIDADES ROTINEIRAS E INCIDÊNCIA CRIMINAL

ANÁLISE DO IMPACTO DA PANDEMIA DE CORONAVÍRUS NO CRIME EM BELO HORIZONTE

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 fostered the empirical study of the criminal phenomenon, turning the pandemic, although tragic, into a major criminological experiment. However, in Brazil, the subject has not yet found the proper repercussion in academia, despite its practical and theoretical relevance. This paper intends to fill this gap and engage in the international debate, providing unprecedented analyzes on the impact of measures to contain the advance of the pandemic on criminal incidence in the city of Belo Horizonte. For the collection of raw data, the crime records from 2016 to 2021 registered by the state's gendarmery on theft, robbery and homicide, both over attempted and consummated modalities, were used. The historical series of crimes were made compatible with the epidemiological weeks, according to the World Health Organization calendar. Data on the variation in urban mobility were obtained through Google Mobility. The models presented an adjusted R2 of 0.7983 for thefts, 0.7943 for robberies and 0.1528 for homicides. The results indicate that, although the theory of routine activities proposes a strong correlation between urban mobility and the crimes of theft, robbery and homicide. , there is statistical significance for the first two, but not for the crime of homicide.